SECURITY PROJECTIONS IN KENYA IN 2026

 

In 2025, the country’s security landscape was generally tense, with the central defining feature being the demise of a significant political figure, Raila Amollo Odinga (RAO). Gen Zee protests in commemoration of earlier protests led to several fatalities and a spike in unexplained organised abductions. Internationally, a massive fraud in the USA, mainly attributed to the immigrant Somali community, was unearthed which is bound to have repercussions on the country.

The likely security-related issues of note in 2026 are:

Natural disasters: Predictably, the first two months of every year in the country are periods of extensive drought and famine, leading to significant livestock losses and occasionally, human fatalities; this year may not be an exception.  After this period, heavy rains and floods invariably follow all across the country, with, ironically, again resultant loss of life and property.

Banditry/Cattle rustling- Like every year subsequent bouts of cyclic violence involving cattle raids and banditry are bound to erupt especially in the counties of Samburu, Turkana, West Pokot, Elgeyo Marakwet, Garrissa and some sections of Laikipia counties. The raids are customarily tied to cultural biases and the need to restock after the losses incurred during the extended drought.

Al Shabaab- the Somali extremist group remains a potent force capable of springing deadly surprises in the country, with the improvised explosive device (IED) remaining their preferred method of havoc. So, in 2026, surprise attacks by Al Shabaab remain a distinct possibility.  

Alcoholism/Drug Abuse- These twin menaces are likely to persist as the prevailing tough economic conditions are bound to lead to further disillusionment especially among the youthful population.

Gen Zee civic unrest- While presently considered silent, the Generation Zee remains a potent and restive constituency capable of disrupting national peace through civil unrest on short notice. The flare-up is likely to be witnessed mid-year when the commemoration dates of the earlier protests within the last two years fall due.

Political Tension-  RAO may have been demised, his shadow though continues to dominate the political landscape. RAO ‘s absence and with the 2027 general elections steadily beckoning, the political class are expected to be loud as they seek relevance and primacy. Their utterances tend to be over-amplified by social media, heightening ethnic and national tensions.

Massive fraud in the USA-  Internationally, a massive fraud in the USA, mainly attributed to the immigrant Somali community, was unearthed which is bound to have repercussions on Kenya. It is expected that the investigations will lead to the mass deportation of these unsavoury characters to Kenya. These moneyed but shadowy deported characters would have the exposure and criminal networks and could perennially be a cause of national security headaches. It could get worse. With the fraud pipeline plugged, the impact is likely to be felt economically, with subsequent job losses.

In summary, the major security threats in the country in 2026 are likely to be on the political front, as a forceful presidency, a loud political class, an angling Gen Z, and a vibrant civil society are bound to keep political temperatures teetering on a fever pitch.  But it will be the Somali debacle in the USA that is likely to be a defining security issue in the country in 2026.